Monday 12 March 2012

More on Chubukov push/fold ranges ... ...

This is getting exciting. As I read more articles on Chubukov, I am getting a better idea of how heads up play's dynamic is like. Chubukov table doesn't tell me that what to do in a HU situation. It merely provide me with information about plays that will ensure that I won't be making -EV move even if my opponents play perfectly against me!

For example, shoving 97o with 4.1 bb will be at worst a 0 EV play in the long run. However, although Chubukov says that shoving 97o with more than 5 bb will yield a -EV, that is on the assumption that my opponents are playing perfectly.

 So is shoving 97o always wrong with 6bb for example?

Let's look at what Nash and Sage says:

 Nash: easy shove with 97o

 Sage: Marginal shove with 6bb but fold with 7bb.

 As can be seen, Chubukov is actually tighter than both Nash and Sage. It is to be expected since we are expecting opponents to be playing perfectly. Good, but what can I derive from all these information?

 Against opponents playing perfect game, I have to fold 97o. But no one is playing perfectly (unless you are playing in the now defunct Ultimate Bet... Lol). Therefore, I can deviate from this chart and how much I deviate depends on how much I know about this opponent.

 Example, I have 97o with just 6bb. Push or shove?

 Case 1: i suspect villain calling ranges are only hands like JT+, I can shove because I know that he is not playing perfectly against my pushing range here

 Case2: villain whom I have taken notes that he calls with Q5o with 6bb, I shld fold because his calling range is a perfect range against my shove here!

 In a nutshell: 

1) Chubukov tells me the minimum stack size and hands that I can shove with unexploitably given that villain play perfect.

 2) however, it doesn't say that I can't shove with hands that it says will yield -EV coz the assumption that ppl play perfectly is not possible.

 3) it is noww up to human brain to figure out if the shove is profitable depending on how likely we think the villain can play perfectly here!

 Another Eureka moment!!! Lol.....

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