Mission Accomplished.... Platinumstar!

Now for Supernova status!

So I will need 85, 000 more VPPs to achieve Supernova.

Given that :

one $15 turbo SnG = 7.2 VPP

==>  A total of 12,000 SnG required this year

==> Since there are 9 more months left this year, I need to play an average of 1335 SnG/month.

This shall be my main motivation to keep on grinding and achieve Supernova Status!

Rakeback bonuses


And with my new Platinum status, given that I will be playing at least 1335 SnG/ month, my FFP earned per month will be

 1335 x 7.2 x 2.5 = 24,000 fpps = $250 in bonus.

Projected Stellar cash rewards =$100/per month

==> my monthly "rakeback" = $350.

==> only 23% rakeback! wtf....

Zoom Poker

In my previous post, I mentioned about using some strategy for Zoom poker. Using this strategy, I have played about 1k+ hands at Zoom 25nl.

The game generally feels softer than the normal 25nl tables and I am able to take down alot of blinds uncontested or outplay some player post flop especially when I have position. Basically, I am playing a LAG style at a table full of nits or loose passive calling stations.

My result?

My red line (non-showdown winnings) accounts for all my overall profits... lol

And my blue line? Slightly negative though, no thanks to this hand that I played just now....

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

Hero (BTN): $27.20 (108.8 bb)
SB: $25 (100 bb)
BB: $20.35 (81.4 bb)
UTG+1: $13.51 (54 bb)
UTG+2: $30.49 (122 bb)
MP1: $25 (100 bb)
MP2: $23.18 (92.7 bb)
MP3: $20.10 (80.4 bb)
CO: $28.76 (115 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with J 9
4 folds, MP3 calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, 2 folds, MP3 raises to $3.25, CO folds, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($7.10) T T Q (2 players)
MP3 bets $5.50, Hero raises to $23.95 and is all-in, MP3 calls $11.35 and is all-in

Turn: ($40.80) 9 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: ($40.80) 6 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results: $40.80 pot ($1.84 rake)
Final Board: T T Q 9 6
Hero showed J 9 and won $0.00 (-$20.10 net)
MP3 showed J J and won $38.96 ($18.86 net)

Regfest @ $15 SNG at Pokerstar

A typical regular infested table at $15 sng at Pokerstar. In a table of 9, there are at least 4-5 winning regulars as well as 2-3 terrible regulars who can't seem to understand SnG.

I think there are certain periods which are always reg infested. For example, weekday (Singapore's time) between 3pm-6pm as well as 8-10pm. Generally, weekends do have more fishes than weekdays.

Guess I will have to live with these kind of reg infested table  in the future. The days where there are a large pool of fishes to feed on are long gone.

Winning A WSOP bracelet?

Wow... now everyone has a chance to win a WSOP bracelet. Urm, not exactly A bracelet... but tiny bits of that.

This year, there is a 1 million dollars buy in event for top pros. Daniel Negreanu has indicated his willingness to get ppl to stake him for as little as $120.
( http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-journal.php?subaction=showfull&id=1325899234&archive= )

Seems like a good idea. I will be monitoring this and see how it is going to work out.

Best day so far at $15 SnG

The Race to Platinum... ...

• 8 more days till end of the month. 

• 1.6k vpp to Platinumstar

• which means  an average of 35 SNG per day required

• which translate to 3h/day of grinding. 

This shall be my target for the rest of the month. 

And my plan ?

1. Start grinding at 730 and end at 1030pm every weekday. (About 22-27 games)
2. Make up for the deficit during weekends.
3. Blogging and watching training videos every weekday from 1030 - 12 midnight...

Gogogo.... PlatinumStar is nearing!

Strategy for Zoom Poker

Pokerstars has recently came out with its own version of Rush Poker. They called it Zoom Poker which is an improved version of Rush Poker. In Zoom, players are able to "sit out next blind" or watch the entire hand after folding by simply pressing the "CTRL" button while clicking on the fold button.

I guess the strategy required for Zoom Poker will be essentially different from normal ring games. In ring games, especially for small stake NLHE, sharks are always on a look out for fishes. And these fishes are the main contributor to sharks' win rate.

I would regard myself as a winning player for 9 max 25NL, having played more than 140k hands with a winrate of about 3 big blinds/100. My strategy? Simple... ... Exploitation and more exploitation - With the use of HUD . Without HUD, I can't simply play 6 tables at a go. I am blind without HUD so to speak.

In Zoom Poker, without HUD, players will no longer be able to identify fishes from the regular sharks. Without HUD, it becomes almost impossible to exploit others because there are no ways sharks can exploit the tendencies of opponents. Even though HM2 and PT4 have indicated the possiblity of incorporating HUD in Zoom, the usefulness of HUD in a fast changing table dynamic of Zoom Poker is questionable.

So what do all these boils down to?

ABC poker seems to be the way to go in Zoom Poker. Since we do not know who are the fishes, we no longer can  call an UTG raise with any  hands profitably, hoping to bluff and take away a hand easily.  We are no longer able to distinguish bluff from value betting since we can't tell that from their betting pattern. With all these in mind, here's my version of a simple strategy to win in Zoom Poker.

1. Tight is right at Zoom. Fold all speculative hand UTG. Given that everyone plays tight, playing speculative hand OOP is no longer profitable. 
2. Given the nature of Zoom Poker, expect everyone to fold thrashes and everyone to raise any premium hands and pocket pairs in any position. Therefore, respect all mid position raises since they are likely to have some hands given they they need to wait for the action to get to them (Assumption: They are likely to fold lousy hands and move on quickly to the next table). 
3. Make full use of Button and CO position. These positions are gold in Zoom. Sharks no longer are able to tell if anyone is abusing the power of the position. Don't fold too quickly at BTN and CO position. Instead. Steal relentlessly with any decent hands  if action is folded to you. This will ensure that the red line is kept up and thus, boosting the non-showdown profit.
4. Call any raises with speculative hands in position since the implied odds is greater now since everyone is playing tighter. 

Well, these are just my ideas. Not yet proven but to me at least, it sounds feasible and logical. 

I would welcome any comments on this. 

(SnG Heads-up) Sick Call with Ace high at turn... ...

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Poker Stars)

Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, March 19, 10:03:00 ET 2012

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8 A

Hero raises to 400, BB calls 200

Flop: (850) T 4 Q (2 players)

BB bets 400, Hero raises to 1,200, BB calls 800

Turn: (3,250) 2 (2 players)

BB bets 4,025 and is all-in, Hero calls 4,025

River: (11,300) 9 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: 11,300 pot

Final Board: T 4 Q 2 9

Hero showed 8 A and won 11,300 (5,650 net)

BB showed 6 5 and lost (-5,650 net)

• This is the final hand in the SnG Turbo (9max), playing heads-up against a calling station. 
• In my notes, I have indicated that the villain is a calling station who wouldn't fold to any 3 bets or flop raise etc. 
• When I raised flop, the villain just called my flop raise, usually indicating that he doesn't have a hand. 
• I reasoned that if he does have a hand, he would shove to my flop raise since I am indicating strength and the board is so draw heavy. 
• When he overshove turn, I instant call because in my previous hand with him, I folded when he shove. If he does have a hand, he will not shove turn because I am likely to fold. Hence, I made an instant call with Ace high.

When will this breakeven stretch ever ends?!

Been through a roller coaster weekend.... up $200+ on Saturday then came back crushing down on Sunday... It is getting absurd and demoralising!

Well, I met my old foe from FTP, Jmm256 at pokerstars last Saturday. Jmm256 was a good regular at the $22/$33 sng at FTP and a solid winning player. We played thousands of hands at FTP and surprisingly, he still remember who I am! Nice that he remembers me but not so nice that we are now playing against each other again!

 Anyway, he told me not to worry and told me to google his result. He also went through a 1k games breakeven stretch and told me that if I kept doing what I am doing now, the results will come one day. Hopefully....

His last 1100k hands.... 

at least it is some comfort to me that a top shark like Jmm256 goes through a run like these.... and I am not the worse... ...

Improvement in my heads up game? Or just Variance?

As can be seen from the table above, in 13 games that got into heads-up, I managed to win 10 of them. Certainly, being on the positive side of variance helps, eg., winning coin flips or 60/40. 

But I guess I deserve some credit for getting myself into positions like these. 

This is going to spur me on to train myself even harder in SNG and eventually crush the game!

Reviewing my ITM play

A game that I made several mistakes and cost me 1st place.

Finally a day where I ran above EV!

Cheers!!!

But it is still a sickening breakeven stretch that has already lasted for >300 games...

Going crazy soon....

My winning graph (Green Line) and EV adjusted line for yesterday....

Actual Loss: -$138

EV adjusted winnings: about +$100...

What the hell!!!

And my lifetime sng graph at Pokerstars:

Mission Impossible... ...

As much as I hope to get Platinum this month, it seems like an unlikely possibility given the number of games I played/day and the number of hours I spent analysing and studying my game.

A check with the VIP calculator from pokerstars.com:

Number of games played/day: 35

VPPs gained per day: 214

Maximum number of points possible this month: 3638

Points required: 4454


Hmmm... ... I need about 900 more points to get Platinumstar. I can actually achieve this if I:

1. Spend all my time playing and neglect my hand history review and studying.
2. Multi tabling 9 at a time. This will ensure I can get at least 45+ games per day on average.
3. Move up stake to $30 sng. 

Well, I am not going to do all these which I feel will not help me in improving my game. If I couldnt achieve Platinum, so be it. I will continue to grind at $15 till I have sufficient bankroll to move up to $30 but first of all, I need to regain my 9 tabling ability at sng first. I am so rusty 6 tabling now that I think I am a losing player if I start to multi 9 tables.

HU research - Exploitative, Optimal and Unexploitable Play

In my current research on heads-up play, I have analysed 3 main concepts that people used for push-fold phase of the game, namely,

1. Nash Equilibrium
2. Sage
3. Chubukov hand chart. 

These are all unexploitable strategies where anyone following these push/fold ranges will be guaranteed at least a 0 EV assuming the others are playing perfectly as well. However, as I mentioned in my previous post, something confused me.  Since these 3 concepts are unexploitable, why does it give recommendation that differ from each other. Eg., 97o is a fold according to Chubukov but easy shove with 7bb in Nash?

As I read an article on equilibrium and optimal play just now, I came to this conclusion: The key word lies in Equilibrium


Let's look at this scenario:

I have 6bb left and I have J5o. According to Nash, this is a shove. So I shove with this hand. A few orbits later, I am still left with 6bb and now I got a monster QQ. Remembering that my opponent folded when I shove with J5o, I decided to be a little funny and limp with QQ instead. 

I had made a serious mistake in this hand. I deviated away from the Equilibrium that made shoving J5 an unexploitable shove. In the future, my shove with J5o will become a losing play.

Thus, for equilibrium to function, if I shove J6o with 6bb, I need to shove all my other hands here. Understanding equilibrium will be the key success to winning heads-up game, esp when it is deep stacked. And to think that I played thousands of SnG heads-up without realising this important factor for a long time.

But how about plays that are exploitable? Optimal strategies demands exploitative strategies. Playing unexploitably only serve to ensure that I am only making 0 EV play and making fewer mistakes. It doesnt help me to boost my ROI%.

 Why employ exploitative strategy?

1. First of all, it is because Tom Dwan said so.... lol. He refuted the conclusion from the Noble Prize winner John Nash with regards to Nash Equilibrium (However, Dwan has yet to prove it mathematically). 
2. Unexploitable strategy, though ensuring that it is impossible for anyone to beat me (say, if I follow Nash), but each time I tried to be unexploitable, I am passing up every opportunity to maximise my ROI.
3. When I am already ITM, due to the prize structure, getting first place is very important. Thus, being unexploitable is not really a coherent approach to my eventual target of getting first. 
4. Most of my opponents are not playing "ideally". Hence, following Nash or other equilibrium doesn't help me increase my ROI. 

What is exploitative strategy and what are some of the key things to note?

• Taking advantage of general exploitative tendencies of opponents. This involves
• Knowing the frequencies in which a player keep doing certain action, for eg., 3 bet shoving preflop etc). 
• As well as others...( to be further research on....)

• However, by exploiting others, I am exposing myself to be exploited by others because I am not playing equilibrium ranges!
• Thus, while I am exploiting the typical response of certain styles, I need to be mindful about when my opponent starts to adjust and react to my non-equilibrium tendencies.
•  If I do not adjust, my exploitation of others will become a target that is being counter exploited by others!

(I sort of suddenly realised this fact and being able to put it down in words after playing this game today - below). 

Food for thoughts... ...

• By playing like what I did, relentlessly min raising at BTN, I am opening myself up for exploitation. The villain know this and has also started to attack my tendency by shoving into me. 

• However, I know that the villain is making a huge mistake (a bigger mistake than my min raising frequency), thus I can continue to min raise and expect to get paid off in the future. 

• What should the villain correct counter strategy to exploit my tendency then?

AT bubble marginal push? Or fold?

More on Chubukov push/fold ranges ... ...

This is getting exciting. As I read more articles on Chubukov, I am getting a better idea of how heads up play's dynamic is like. Chubukov table doesn't tell me that what to do in a HU situation. It merely provide me with information about plays that will ensure that I won't be making -EV move even if my opponents play perfectly against me!

For example, shoving 97o with 4.1 bb will be at worst a 0 EV play in the long run. However, although Chubukov says that shoving 97o with more than 5 bb will yield a -EV, that is on the assumption that my opponents are playing perfectly.

 So is shoving 97o always wrong with 6bb for example?

Let's look at what Nash and Sage says:

 Nash: easy shove with 97o

 Sage: Marginal shove with 6bb but fold with 7bb.

 As can be seen, Chubukov is actually tighter than both Nash and Sage. It is to be expected since we are expecting opponents to be playing perfectly. Good, but what can I derive from all these information?

 Against opponents playing perfect game, I have to fold 97o. But no one is playing perfectly (unless you are playing in the now defunct Ultimate Bet... Lol). Therefore, I can deviate from this chart and how much I deviate depends on how much I know about this opponent.

 Example, I have 97o with just 6bb. Push or shove?

 Case 1: i suspect villain calling ranges are only hands like JT+, I can shove because I know that he is not playing perfectly against my pushing range here

 Case2: villain whom I have taken notes that he calls with Q5o with 6bb, I shld fold because his calling range is a perfect range against my shove here!

 In a nutshell: 

1) Chubukov tells me the minimum stack size and hands that I can shove with unexploitably given that villain play perfect.

 2) however, it doesn't say that I can't shove with hands that it says will yield -EV coz the assumption that ppl play perfectly is not possible.

 3) it is noww up to human brain to figure out if the shove is profitable depending on how likely we think the villain can play perfectly here!

 Another Eureka moment!!! Lol.....

Learning ReflectionL (HU play) Chubukov - Sklansky Hands Ranking

In my previous posts, I researched on certain important heads-up push/fold ranges that are very important in a Heads-up endgame, namely Sage as well as Nash equilibrium.

There is another important push/fold theory that we can apply in our SnG Heads-up game. It is known as the Chubukov-Sklansky Ranking of hands for heads-up push fold ranges.

Chubukov-Sklansky Push-Fold ranges

• Based on Sklansky's Fundamental Theorem of Poker: 

• Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose

• Now, let say I have K3s with 12bbs effective stack size. Based on Chubukov, can I shove with a +EV expectation?

• Assuming villain can see our holecard and make a perfect decision. 
• So, he would call with K3s+ as well as all K4+. 
• Based on probability, there are 379 possible hands that he will call and 846 hands that he will fold. And based on this range, the probability that I win when I got called is 0.369. 
• With all these input, I can shove with 14 bb and still be having a +EV expectation!

• The push-fold ranges of all possible hands are given in this website: http://www2.decf.berkeley.edu/~chubukov/rankings.html

So, what are the things that we learn from this push/fold ranges?

1. In our heads-up game, normally push/fold game only starts when the effective stack size is about 10-12bb deep. 
2. When the effective stack size is slightly deeper than 12bb, there are room for min raising, limping and playing post flop (This will be another of my review topic in later weeks).
3. Thus, when looking at this push/fold ranges, I will be paying attention more to the situation when I have 10bb or less. 
4. Hence, 

Let x be the effective stack size in terms of big blinds

a) For  9< x <10, I can shove  Q4s, and J9o+

b) For 7 < x < 9, I can shove  J5s+, T9o+

c) For 5 < x < 7, I can shove T5s+ , J5o+

d) For 3 < x < 5, Almost any two cards except for thrash hands like T2o, 92s or worse. 

This is inclusive of all premium hands and pocket pairs. 

The comeback king?

Been running well since that sickening downswing. Had an ROI of about 10% and making $200+ after 125 games. Hope I can continue to improve and by the end of next month, I will be able to recover most of my losses.

May the Poker God not desert me again... ...

I also added in a $30 SNG game during a session just now. I recce the players before I joined the table and realised that there is only 1 winning shark in that game. Instant register for the game and ended up 2nd after suffering some bad beats. I would have been 1st thousands times over if not for the super heater the fishes were on. 

The good run returns...

My last 45 games:

Long may this good run continue!

AK at bubble, Fold or Shove (Part 2)

Pardon for the poor video quality, but basically, in the video I talk about the correct play of Hero based on the following parameter: 

Assuming that: 

1) BTN shove 50% (based on his actual play, he is shoving even 75%) of his hand

2) SB shove with A8+ (top 15.4% of his hand)

SnG Wizards still recommends a shove

And also assuming that BTN folds, and SB shove, I have to fold even AK.

AK at bubble... push or fold?

Revision: What is Nash Equilibrium?

Nash Equilibrium 

• It is very important to know this during heads up SnG game. 
• ICM doesn't apply now since the tournament EV is now equal to chips EV. 
• Basically, it tells me when to shove or call unexploitably in a heads up situation. 
• Pushing and Calling Range  according to Nash Equilibrium

Unexploitable vs Optimal

• By playing unexploitably, it is a zero sum ( 0 EV) game assuming that everyone plays exactly according to Nash. 
• If any player deviates from the unexploitable range, he would be making -EV moves and the player playing according to Nash gains. 
• However, it is not optimal. For example, Nash recommends that shoving AA with 20BB+ is unexploitable. But this is not an optimal move though it is unexploitable. 

Playing Optimally

• In case of playing a player that we had no idea what is their push/fold range, playing according to Nash will ensure that we are not making too much of a mistake. 
• However, once we know the push/fold range of a player, we can then start adjusting our ranges as well. 
• For example, if a player calls a wider range than Nash suggested, we should tighten up and vice versa. 

Conclusion

Playing exactly according to Nash doesn't make us money in the long run. We should play according to Nash only if we had little information of the player. However, if we know the tendencies of the players, we should adjust/modify our game to increase our ROI%  in this game. 

Sage System vs Nash Equilibrium

A friend pointed out to me about another possible system of playing Heads-up endgame in SnG. It is known as the Sage system.

Basically, in Sage system, a Power Index (PI) is assigned to every value of R (ratio of stack size to blinds).

PI = [(power number)x2] + face value of smaller card + Y

Where power number = rank value of different cards (A=15, K=13, Q=12 ... 2=2)

Y = additional points (suited card = 2, pocket pairs = 22)

So, say I have 67o, at R=7, should I push or fold?

Nash says, I can push this hand profitably whenever I have ~10bb.

SAGE says,  PI = (7*2)+6 = 20 which is a fold according to SAGE!

Hmmm.... both are based on math but they gave different recommendation....

This will be my research topic from today. Understand the difference between Nash and SAGE and decide on which system to choose.